Revealing latent trajectories of (intended) train travel during and after COVID-19

Document Type

Journal Article

Publication Date

2024

Subject Area

place - europe, mode - rail, ridership - attitudes, ridership - behaviour, ridership - commuting, planning - surveys

Keywords

Train ridership, Working from home, Stated future intentions, Panel data, Longitudinal latent class model, COVID-19

Abstract

This study investigates whether the decline in public transit ridership is a temporary phenomenon or indicative of a structural shift in travel patterns and attitudes. We estimate a latent class trajectory model using data from a comprehensive and large-scale survey administered by the Dutch national train operator conducted at eight different points in time after the onset of the pandemic. Six latent trajectories in train use and stated future intentions to use the train are revealed, showing different ‘recovery’ pathways. Whereas low-educated frequent commuters travel almost as much as before, highly educated frequent commuters and mixed-purpose travellers still travel much less, even in the last wave when all restrictions are lifted. The results indicate that travellers belonging to these classes have structurally changed their behaviour. The shift to working from home is more pronounced than the shift to private car use.

Rights

Permission to publish the abstract has been given by Elsevier, copyright remains with them.

Comments

Transportation Research Part D Home Page:

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/13619209

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