Bus dwell time estimation and overtaking maneuvers analysis: A stochastic process approach

Authors

Tao Wang
Li Huang
Junfang Tian
Jing Zhang
Zijian Yuan
Jianfeng Zheng

Document Type

Journal Article

Publication Date

2024

Subject Area

place - asia, place - urban, mode - bus, operations - crowding, operations - traffic, operations - reliability, planning - methods

Keywords

bus dwell time (BDT), bus overtaking

Abstract

The precise estimation of bus dwell time (BDT) is immensely important as it directly impacts the reliability of bus schedules and the accuracy of arrival time predictions. Various factors—such as the behavior of buses merging into the main traffic flow, uneven distribution of passengers on board, and frequent bus queues—jointly lead to a high variability of the BDT. To achieve an accurate estimation of BDT across various stop types, a comprehensive BDT model is developed in this paper. First, based on berth occupancy, probabilistic models are constructed for different bus arrival scenarios, which are then used to study corresponding bus queuing times. Second, the Bureau of Public Roads function is employed to characterize the obstruction effect occupants on the bus impose on boarding passengers. Combined with this function, a bus service time model is proposed considering the bus opening doors more than once and in-vehicle crowding. Third, the bus merging process is discretized to cope with the volatility of the time interval required for a bus to leave the bus bay. A Markov chain model is designed to calculate the time buses have to wait before merging. Case studies conducted in Qingdao, Chongqing and Beijing, China, demonstrate the effectiveness of the comprehensive model both during off-peak and peak periods. Furthermore, this paper incorporates overtaking rules into the comprehensive model to examine the influence of bus overtaking willingness and various overtaking policies on bus queuing times. Through numerical analysis, the key link is between willingness to overtake, service time and the likelihood of bus overtaking is disclosed.

Rights

Permission to publish the abstract has been given by Elsevier, copyright remains with them.

Comments

Transportation Research Part E Home Page:

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/13665545

Recommended Citation

Wang, T., Huang, L., Tian, J., Zhang, J., Yuan, Z., & Zheng, J. (2024). Bus dwell time estimation and overtaking maneuvers analysis: A stochastic process approach. Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, 186, 103577.