SCENARIO BUILDING AS A TOOL FOR PLANNING A SUSTAINABLE TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM

Document Type

Journal Article

Publication Date

2003

Subject Area

planning - surveys, land use - planning, ridership - forecasting, ridership - forecasting, policy - sustainable, place - urban, mode - mass transit

Keywords

Urban development, Transportation planning, Transit, Tel Aviv (Israel), Sustainable development, Sustainability, Surveys, Strategies, Strategic planning, Scenarios, Public transit, Projections, Priorities, Policy making, Objectives, Mass transit, Long range planning, Local transit, Land use planning, Goals, Forecasting, Delphi method, Case studies

Abstract

This paper suggests a scenario approach to identify policies that will result in a sustainable transportation system and applies the approach to explore the future development of the Tel-Aviv metropolitan area (TAMA). The authors have constructed two scenarios for the future development of the TAMA: an expected scenario and a desired scenario. The scenarios were constructed by means of a two-round Delphi expert-based survey. Based on the opinion of the experts, the research examines potential policy measures, which may contribute to a sustainable transportation system in Tel-Aviv. The development of both expected and desired scenarios helped to analyze the feasibility of the desired scenario and assess the likelihood of implementation of its different elements. Results show that a combination of policy measures is necessary in order to achieve a sustainable transportation system for the TAMA, with land uses and technological measures being vital elements, and economic and governmental measures playing a secondary role. Key elements in the desired scenario are a highly developed public transportation system, better coordination between the spatial development and the transportation system, high parking fees, congestion pricing and maintaining the functional role of the central business district. The main elements in the desired scenario are also probable, as indicated by the expected scenario. This suggests that a sustainable development of the transportation system in Tel-Aviv is a realistic vision. The Delphi method used in this study appears to be an efficient tool for long range planning.

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Transportation Research Part D Home Page: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/13619209

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