Decomposing passenger transport futures: Comparing results of global integrated assessment models

Authors

O. Y. Edelenbosch
D. L. McCollum
D. P. van Vuuren
C. Bertram
S. Carrara
H. Daly
S. Fujimori
A. Kitous
P. Kyle
E. Ó Broin
P. Karkatsoulis
F. Sano

Document Type

Journal Article

Publication Date

2016

Subject Area

planning - travel demand management, planning - environmental impact, technology - alternative fuels, technology - emissions

Keywords

Passenger transportation, Energy modelling, Model comparison, Low emission scenarios

Abstract

The transport sector is growing fast in terms of energy use and accompanying greenhouse gas emissions. Integrated assessment models (IAMs) are used widely to analyze energy system transitions over a decadal time frame to help inform and evaluating international climate policy. As part of this, IAMs also explore pathways of decarbonizing the transport sector. This study quantifies the contribution of changes in activity growth, modal structure, energy intensity and fuel mix to the projected passenger transport carbon emission pathways. The Laspeyres index decomposition method is used to compare results across models and scenarios, and against historical transport trends. Broadly-speaking the models show similar trends, projecting continuous transport activity growth, reduced energy intensity and in some cases modal shift to carbon-intensive modes - similar to those observed historically in a business-as-usual scenario. In policy-induced mitigation scenarios further enhancements of energy efficiency and fuel switching is seen, showing a clear break with historical trends. Reduced activity growth and modal shift (towards less carbon-intensive modes) only have a limited contribution to emission reduction. Measures that could induce such changes could possibly complement the aggressive, technology switch required in the current scenarios to reach internationally agreed climate targets.

Rights

Permission to publish the abstract has been given by Elsevier, copyright remains with them.

Comments

Transportation Research Part D Home Page:

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/13619209

Recommended Citation

Edelenbosch, O.Y., McCollum, D.L., van Vuuren, D.P., Bertram, C., Carrara, S., Daly, H., Fujimori, S., Kitous, A., Kyle, P., Ó Broin, E., Karkatsoulis, P., & Sano, F. (2016). Decomposing passenger transport futures: Comparing results of global integrated assessment models. Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, Available online 8 August 2016. In Press, Corrected Proof — Note to users.