Development of railway station choice models to improve the representation of station catchments in rail demand models
Document Type
Journal Article
Publication Date
2018
Subject Area
infrastructure - station, mode - rail, place - europe, planning - surveys, planning - travel demand management, ridership - demand, ridership - forecasting, ridership - modelling
Keywords
Railway station choice, discrete choice models, passenger demand forecasting
Abstract
This paper describes the development of railway station choice models suitable for defining probabilistic station catchments. These catchments can then be incorporated into the aggregate demand models typically used to forecast demand for new rail stations. Revealed preference passenger survey data obtained from the Welsh and Scottish Governments was used for model calibration. Techniques were developed to identify trip origins and destinations from incomplete address information and to automatically validate reported trips. A bespoke trip planner was used to derive mode-specific station access variables and train leg measures. The results from a number of multinomial logit and random parameter (mixed) logit models are presented and their predictive performance assessed. The models were found to have substantially superior predictive accuracy compared to the base model (which assumes the nearest station has a probability of one), indicating that their incorporation into passenger demand forecasting methods has the potential to significantly improve model predictive performance.
Rights
Permission to publish the abstract has been given by Taylor&Francis, copyright remains with them.
Recommended Citation
Young, M.A., & Blainey, S.P. (2018). Development of railway station choice models to improve the representation of station catchments in rail demand models. Transportation Planning and Technology, Vol. 41, pp. 80-103.
